THIS STUDY HAS BEEN CONCLUDED. TORNADO IS CYCLONIC. Thanks to everybody involved for their input and analysis. This has been one of the most deceiving tornadoes I've ever seen. Some of the video, from different angles, was so convincing that it was anti-cyclonic. Some pretty wierd visual tricks going on compounded by some fascinating DOW images. However, after carefully weighing all of the data, I am concluding that this was indeed a CYCLONIC tornado. Below is all of the data and analysis compiled as it was discovered and presented. Pretty interesting stuff. -Steve Miller

Cyclonic? Anticyclonic?
Two tornadoes? Or were there three?

There are differing opinions and analysis of what actually happened West of Stratford Texas on the late afternoon of May 15, 2003. The focus has been whether or not the elephant trunk tornado was cyclonic or anticyclonic as well as if it was in reality a third separate tornado. I've discussed this with a few chasers that chased this storm, including one that was much closer and contends that it was cyclonic. A few others say it was anticyclonic.

I get the same difference of opinion when showing the video to other people. I have a clip of this video, but keep in mind that it is compressed and some detail is lost. I will be trying to get a higher resolution video posted in the near future. What I have now can be found here. A second unrelated clip of the nice wedge can be found here (Windows Media). All DOW images were taken from Project ROTATE's site.

Much of this debate has centered around this tornado being part of the remnant cyclonic tornado that was the southern most circulation just prior to the event. That of course would make logical sense and a strong argument that it was cyclonic....as well as to easily dismiss any other theory or observation. However, I just can't make my eyes "see" cyclonic rotation of this tornado in my video (Windows Media) despite the many many times I've watched it. Furthermore, Jeff Lawson pointed out that there are no pictures or video yet clearly showing this transformation from multi-vortex to elephant trunk thus associating the same cyclonic circulation. The more I watched it and recalled the event itself, I became more convinced that it was a separate tornado evolving north of the southern most circulation. Thanks to Eric Nguyen who informed me of the new DOW images posted of this event, I can now cancel my trip to the eye doctor and psychiatrist. :-)

I contend therefore, and quite strongly at that, that this tornado was a brief but separate third tornado that was indeed anticyclonic. Yes, that's what I said....3 tornadoes. Amos Magliocco, who was my chase partner, contends that it is at least anticyclonic. He has shown his video to a few other people including non-chasers who all agree on the anticyclonic nature of the tornado/funnel. He has yet to see the latest DOW images and my analysis. You can see his video here (Real Player).

Amos and I are on County Road "L" positioned west of Stratford by about 3.5 miles. GPS coordinates: N36° 20.56' W102° 08.77' as denoted on this map. This county road runs due west in the video and pics and is the direction we are looking. In my video, I first focus on the southern most cyclonic tornadic circulation where some multi-vortex spinups were noted by other chasers. As I pan right to look at the newly developing large tornado, you can briefly see a distinct and separate lowering in between these two main circulations. I believe that this about the time that this DOW image 1 was taken at 23:07:46Z. (The left hand image is a velocity scan with the blue/green/purple colors indicating motion towards the radar position in the upper right hand corner and the oranges/browns/reds moving away. The right image is a reflectivity scan. ALL SCANS ARE NOT AT GROUND LEVEL). You can already make out on this image a small area of developing anticyclonic circulation within a broader area of anticyclonic shear between both main circulations. I believe that we are somewhere in the lower righthand corner of the image with west being oriented from lower right to upper left. I've yet to confirm this with Project ROTATE. (UPDATED: North is top and center. Preliminary triangulation places our position just off the center right hand side).

The elephant trunk tornado rapidly and suddenly develops less than 1 minute later from this lowering and I pan back to videotape it. I believe that this DOW image 2 captures this event at 23:08:37Z. The size of the circulations on this image correspond quite well with the size of the tornadoes in the video as well as clearly showing three simultaneous tornadic circulations. Jeff Lawson overlayed circulation patterns, tornado positions, and RFD orientation that you can see here.

The elephant trunk appearence quickly subsides and the tornado appears to be disrupted according to video. I think this DOW image 3 at 23:10:19Z shows this disruption as the RFD is strong enough to break up the ground circulation.

However, another condenstaion funnel quickly appears and makes contact with the ground again....a brief intensification? This is supported by this DOW image 4 which shows another tight anticyclonic circulation at 23:11:14Z.

I zoom in on this dying tornado where it is rotating anticyclonic, at least to my eyes and repeated scrutiny. You can make out some small scud moving from right to left (and exhibiting slight anticyclonic rotation in of itself) in front of the tornado which I attribute to the new RFD coming in between us and the tornado and spreading outward thus occluding the anticyclonic tornado. I believe that this DOW image 5 captures this at 23:12:13Z shortly after my zoomed-in video. The velocity data in this area is slightly corrupted, by I believe it still shows some weak anticyclonic circulation which is rapidly dying. This DOW image 6 taken just 8 seconds later at 23:12:21Z still shows a weak, faint anticyclonic circulation. These images correspond quite well with the southeastward and then southward movement of the tornado based on storm-relative reference. Ground reference was a very slow drift to the southeast and almost stationary....shown pretty clearly in the video.

OK. I've made my case based on personal observations, video analysis, and DOW images. If you have anything that definitively contradicts my case, please forward it and I will post it here on this page. This page will also continue to grow as I find and receive more data and information. I plan on adding video captures with graphics as I have time.

It is important to note that I am making an assumption as to our viewing position and navigational direction on the DOW images. I hope to hear back from them regarding their GPS coordinates for each of these images. I will then overlay our position and viewing angle as best as I can based on triangulating with the position of the tornadoes. I do not have any time stamps on the video and am guestimating based on my recollection of the events. I am also waiting for my chase partner, Amos Magliocco, to return home and scrutinize his video and his recollection of the event. I will post his analysis, video clip and comment as well.

So, in a nutshell, this is certainly preliminary. Check back every once in awhile to see what I can come up with to add to this page. Oh, by the way, I realize I'm not a research scientist or degreed meteorologist, but I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express. ;-)

FINAL UPDATE 7/7/03: George Kourounis has provided the best video to date clearly showing this to be a CYCLONIC tornado. Click here to see the video for yourself. I have also had a good email exchange with Curtis Alexander, a graduate research assistant at OU. He along with others are just now taking a closer look at the DOW data from that day. Here is a part of his email to me: "We do see three prominent circulations around the time of interest. Two of these circulations are strongly cyclonic with a weaker anticyclonic couplet between the stronger cyclonic circulations. All three circulations exhibit an "eye" or minimum in the power/reflectivity field near the center of the circulation. The anticyclonic circulation does not appear to extend all the way to the ground in the Doppler velocity data." So, the video and expert data and analysis is pretty conclusive that this is indeed a CYCLONIC tornado.

UPDATE #4 6/14/03: Dave Lewison was able to produce a much better video clip of the tornado in question. I think his video speaks for itself in that there is no doubt about this being an anticyclonic tornado. He has two magnified clips. Regular speed and time lapse. See for yourself. I have also gone back and have correlated my position in my video with that of the DOW images. Everything in the DOW scans match up pretty well. So, despite strong disagreement and varying opinions (without any supporting video clips as of yet), my conclusion so far is that this is an anticyclonic tornado and indeed the middle anticyclonic signature on the DOW scans.

UPDATE #3 5/31/03: Gene and Karen Rhoden, who were also very close, have supplied their excellent detailed account and analysis. They have talked to Tim Marshall as well as Bob Conzemius who was with the DOWs. I need to correct and calrify a few things. First, all of the DOW images have north as the topmost center as it should be. Second, although I never mentioned it, the DOW scans are NOT at ground level, but of various azimuth tilts. This puts our position roughly just off of the side in the middle extreme right hand side of the images. This of course does change the perspective of the anticyclonic feature in question and doesn't correlate nearly as well to our video analysis. I still need to do a timestamp analysis of my video, but knowing our position relative to the DOW certainly alters my first theory quite abit. In addition, Gene and Karen relayed Tim Marshall's and the DOW team's account and analysis as well. They are solidly convinced that there were only two tornadoes and all were cyclonic. The anticyclonic anomaly on the DOW image appears to only be a result of the RFD and not any sort of significant tornadic circulation.

UPDATE #2 5/31/03: Ron Gravelle, VA3TVS, was very close and offered excellent still shots as well as his analysis of his and other videos. His analysis and personal account is that only two tornadoes occurred and the elephant trunk is clearly cyclonic. He is strongly convinced of that. I'll post some of his pictures very soon with his permission.

UPDATE#1 5/31/03: Dave Lewison was chasing this storm and was much closer. His video shows the anticyclonic rotation a little better (and some killer closeups of the developing wedge). He is convinced that it is anticyclonic as well as it being a third circulation distinct from the southern decaying circulation.

Steve Miller
KD5FMI
txt@texastailchaser.com

Other anticyclonic tornado studies/events:
June 3, 1980 - Grand Isle, NE
May 4, 1998 - Sunnyvale, CA
May 19, 1982 - Pampa, TX
Observation of anticyclonic funnels/tornadoes on right side of RFD
Chuck Doswell mentions the anticyclonic couplets in RFDs observed by Project Vortex